---
title: "Tariffs, Onshoring, and the Real Challenge: Uncertainty Jan 2026"
description: Navigating tariffs and onshoring requires understanding and planning for uncertainties, not just costs. Learn how businesses can strategically manage these challenges for successful U.S. market entry.
image: https://tkd2group.com/hubfs/tariffs-1.png
---

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 January 22, 2026

# Tariffs, Onshoring, and the Real Challenge: Uncertainty Jan 2026

![Picture of Tom Miller](https://app.hubspot.com/settings/avatar/d41d8cd98f00b204e9800998ecf8427e) By  [Tom Miller](https://tkd2group.com/blog/author/tm)  ·   2 minute read

Tariffs are often discussed in binary terms. They are either good or bad, pro-manufacturing or anti-trade. In practice, the reality for manufacturers is more nuanced.

Manufacturers should not be ideological about tariffs, rather - be pragmatic. Companies want to maximize margins, control risk, and make long-term investments with confidence. Tariffs are simply another cost input that can be modeled and priced when the rules are clear. The real challenge arises when tariff exposure becomes unpredictable during the transition from offshore production to U.S.-based manufacturing.

**Playing by the rules vs. not knowing the rules**

Manufacturers can plan around tariffs when the rules are clear. If importing a component carries a known cost, that cost can be modeled, priced, and negotiated into contracts. The problem arises when tariff exposure can change quickly, with limited notice, while long-term investment decisions are already underway.

This uncertainty matters most during the early phases of onshoring.

**Onshoring is not a single step**

Moving manufacturing to the U.S. is rarely a clean cutover. It typically requires:

- importing specialized equipment or tooling,
- shipping pilot parts or interim production from overseas,
- validating processes before local capacity is fully online.

In many cases, the equipment required to start U.S. production is not available domestically. It must be sourced from established suppliers in Asia or Europe. When that capital equipment is subject to high or unpredictable tariffs, the upfront cost of building in the U.S. increases sharply.

At that point, companies are not choosing between “importing forever” and “building in the U.S.” They are choosing **where to absorb transition risk**.

**A real-world outcome: manufacturing shifts, but not always into the U.S.**

We recently saw this dynamic play out with a manufacturer that wanted to localize production in the United States. The intent was clear: build domestically, hire locally, and shorten supply chains.

However, the specialized equipment required to start production had to be imported from China. Tariffs on that equipment made a U.S. startup cost-prohibitive. Instead, the company located its initial manufacturing operation in Canada, imported the equipment there, and shipped finished parts into the U.S. under USMCA.

The result:

- Manufacturing still moved closer to the U.S. market.
- Jobs were created.
- Supply chains were shortened.
- But the facility was built in Canada, not the United States.

This was not a rejection of U.S. manufacturing. It was a rational response to uncertainty and startup economics.

**Competing globally on a level field**

For foreign suppliers evaluating the U.S. market, the concern is similar. Whether parts are coming from Europe, India, or elsewhere, tariff exposure applies broadly. In that sense, the competitive field is relatively level.

What gives companies pause is not knowing whether that exposure will remain stable over the life of a program. When pricing parts for automotive or industrial platforms that run five to ten years, sudden tariff changes can undermine carefully built business cases after commitments are made.

**What this means for business development**

From a business development perspective, the takeaway is not pessimism. It is realism.

Companies are still pursuing U.S. programs aggressively. OEMs are actively searching for global suppliers. Onshoring is happening. But decisions are increasingly shaped by:

- transition timing,
- capital equipment exposure,
- trade agreement structures,
- and contingency planning for tariff changes.

Understanding these dynamics early allows companies to design entry and localization strategies that work within current policy, rather than reacting to it later.

**Where TKD2 fits**

At TKD2, we work at the intersection of manufacturing, supply chains, and policy. Our role is not to argue for or against tariffs, but to help companies:

- evaluate onshoring pathways,
- understand trade and tariff exposure across regions,
- structure U.S. market entry that aligns with both policy intent and economic reality.

Tariffs are part of the landscape. The winners will be those who plan for the transition, not just the destination.

![tariffs](https://242652217.fs1.hubspotusercontent-na2.net/hub/242652217/hubfs/tariffs.png?width=1200&length=1200&name=tariffs.png)

Disclaimer: Images, excerpts, links, trademarks, and referenced materials included in this post are used for commentary, education, news reporting, and informational purposes under the fair use doctrine. All rights remain with their respective owners. If you believe any material has been used improperly, please contact us and we will review it promptly. [linkedin-in icon](http://www.linkedin.com/shareArticle?mini=true&url=https://tkd2group.com/blog/tariffs-onshoring-and-the-real-challenge-uncertainty) [twitter icon](https://twitter.com/intent/tweet?url=https://tkd2group.com/blog/tariffs-onshoring-and-the-real-challenge-uncertainty) [envelope icon](mailto:?body=https://tkd2group.com/blog/tariffs-onshoring-and-the-real-challenge-uncertainty)

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